How worried should you be right now?
There are four big worries on investors' minds as we head into the summer of 2022:
Inflation
War in Europe
Interest rate hikes
A possible recession
All of these things are interrelated. But, what I'm most concerned about is inflation.
Thankfully, so are the powers that be in the financial world. Almost every monetary authority across the world is facing a similar problem and they are all hands on deck to solve it. That alone, should give us some comfort.
When the pandemic hit, doctors, healthcare workers and scientists went all out to save the day. Because of that, I knew we would eventually pull through. Same deal here but with inflation.
Could it all go to zero?
As usual during market downturns, I've been on the phone a lot with clients and investors listening to their fears and concerns. I'm not going to sugar coat it. It sucks to be an investor right now. But not because this is a bad time to invest.
It's a better time to invest now than it was when stock prices were higher.
It sucks because these issues are hitting all areas of investments. You name it and it's down:
Stocks
Bonds
Houses
Gold
Oil
Crypto (I haven't had anyone call to ask about buying Crypto since it has collapsed by over 60%!)
My heart goes out to retirees who are heavily invested in bonds to provide them with a fixed income to pay their bills. The decline in bond prices has surprised everyone. But those bonds will eventually mature and be reinvested at higher rates.
For stock market investors, if you've invested for longer than two years then you will have gone through corrections in the past. History shows us that in the long run, a diversified portfolio of global business (aka stocks) eventually recover and continue to reward their investors. So, unless you are planning a sizeable withdrawal soon, I give you permission to mentally check out of 'stock talk' for a couple of years.
I've said this before during many market corrections in the past.
If your portfolio goes to zero, it will be the last thing you will need to worry about. The world as we know it will have ceased to exist.
On that cheery note, let's take stock in all of the things investors have lived through in my 15 year career:
Great financial crisis of 2008 - It was far worse than what we have seen in this correction so far. Check out the Big Short if you haven't seen it already to refresh your memory.
Fears that the recovery in 2009-2012 weren't real and it would all crash again - Looking back, we know that markets recovered, but those were some nervous years!
Debt ceiling debate - Remember when the US congress threatened to shut down the government by not raising their debt ceiling? The world wondered if the US was going to crumble if they defaulted on their debt. That passed and we hardly remember it.
Fukushima nuclear disaster - it was the worst many people had ever seen and disrupted so many things in Japan and nearby export-heavy nations. Some Asian nations are still recovering. But investors in Canada have long since recovered.
European debt crisis - Remember when Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece and Spain were almost kicked out of the EU because their debts were so high? Some people thought the EU would dissolve and that would send many countries into a tailspin. I remember this being on the news cycle for months.
Taper tantrum - in 2012 the Federal Reserve wanted to reduce Quantitative Easing and the markets freaked out. Here we are now essentially begging for Quantitative Tightening to control inflation. Oh how the times change!
Trump
Brexit - Do you remember why Canadians and Americans were so worried about this? I don't. It happened. It's not working out. But unless you're British or living in the UK it doesn't affect us as investors as we feared it would.
The Pandemic - it can be easy to forget that there was a month where oil prices were negative and someone would have paid you to own barrels of oil. All you needed was a tanker in your garage! But needless to say, it was a wild time in all respects. Almost everyone was bailed out by their governments either directly or indirectly. I think I heard the word 'unprecedented' an unprecedented number of times.
And you know what? A few years after all of these happened, we sort of forgot they happened. #toosoon for the pandemic, though.
Ok, so this too shall pass. But wait, there's more!
How should you prepare for a recession:
Don't make changes to your investments. We won't know we are in a recession at least six months after it has started. Stock markets always work to predict the future. That means the stock market will start falling well before a recession hits. That's what we are seeing now. The market is predicting a recession will occur, but its often wrong, so, we shouldn’t take this to the bank. #punintended The market will also start to recover and rise well before the economy recovers from the recession, if we end up having one. You don't have a crystal ball or a genie in a lamp. Intelligent investors are in this for the long run and don't need to play the losing game of trying to predict the future. Sit tight and stick to your financial plan.
Pay off debt and preserve your savings. I'm not worried about my clients losing their jobs en masse as I mostly work for doctors, dentists and business owners. But interest rates are rising at a pace similar to what happened when my parents first arrived to Canada in the 70s. They have since hated being in debt because they saw what could happen. In contrast, I work for many young people, meaning people 45 and under, who have never seen a mortgage rate higher than 4%. And yes, my definition of 'young people' is always five years higher than my current age. It's how I stay young forever. No one knows for sure where rates will be in a few years, but they will most likely be higher, so pay off what you can!
Be greedy when others are fearful. It's an old quote from Warren Buffett and a mantra that has made him unfathomably successful. I've been watching some of his old interviews and it is incredible how consistent he has been over his decades long career; and how right he was about passing fads and concerns of the day. When the markets are afraid, this is when we should be hungry to invest more because we can do so at cheaper prices. To be clear here I'm talking about investing in a well diversified portfolio of businesses, not crypto!
Pay attention to other things than the news and your portfolio value. If you're my client, you have strong evidence supporting how your investments are managed. See point 1. This too shall pass and you are going to outlast this market correction. On the other side of this is growth and you getting closer to your financial goals, but only if you stay the course. Looking at your portfolio or the news is going to make this journey harder than it needs to be.
Spend time with your friends and family to make up for lost time during the pandemic. I include this because my marketing consultants say I should always have an odd number of items in my lists, and because I'm free next Saturday. Want to hang out?
Jokes aside, this is a tough time. Give me a shout if you want to talk or vent about what is going on in the world. This is what I am here for.